BioFuels Journal

Sao Paulo, Brazil—The amount of sugarcane crushed in Brazil's Center-South in the first half of September is expected to be 39.9 million metric tons (mt), up 34.5% from same period last year and up 4% from two weeks prior, according to the latest S&P; Global Platts survey of analysts.

About 1.8 days of crushing were lost to rains, the survey showed, while during 1H September 2015 more than five days were lost.

Industry association UNICA is expected to release the official production figures for the key Center-South region on Friday. The 2016-17 sugarcane season in the region began April 1st. If the cane crushed in 1H September proves as forecasted, this season’s cumulative cane crush would total 433.6 million mt, up 8% from same period last year.

The range of analysts' expectations for cane crushed in 1H September was 38.5 million-41.3 million mt and the expectations for total recoverable sugar (ATR) spanned from 141 kg/mt of cane to 149 kg/mt. Survey respondents anticipate the ATR to be 144.11 kg/mt of cane, down 2.6% from a year earlier and 1.2 kg/mt lower than 2H August. The percentage of cane crushed earmarked to produce sugar is expected to be 47.73%, up 7.79 percentage points from a year earlier.

The balance, or 52.27%, was directed to produce ethanol. Sugar production is expected to have reached nearly 2.62 million mt, up 57% from a year ago, while ethanol output is expected to have declined 24% on year to 1.76 billion liters.

Of the total ethanol, hydrous is likely to have accounted for 57%, or 1 billion liters, and anhydrous for the balance. In Parana state, one of Brazil’s CS sugarcane producers, the amount of cane crushed in 1H September rose 10% year on a year-over-year basis to 2.41 million mt, according to local industry association Alcopar.

Despite less rain, the state’s ATR in 1H September dropped 10.56 kg/mt from the prior two weeks to 136.29 kg/mt. Total ethanol sales (anhydrous and hydrous) in 1H September to the domestic market are expected to have reached roughly 1.15 billion liters, according to Platts Kingsman, an agricultural analysis unit of S&P; Global Platts.

This is down slightly from the same period a year ago, at 1.17 billion liters, according to Platts Kingsman forecasts.

Hydrous ethanol is used in flex-fuel vehicles, while anhydrous is mixed with gasoline at a ratio of 27%, according to a national mandate.

See Related Websites/Articles:

• S&P; Global Platts

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